BETA
Benchmark
Discover the performance of Forecastix model on historical data.
Disclaimer
The Forecastix model has been tested on historical events coming from this independent site.
The evaluation results are presented below.
The evaluation results are presented below.
The model has knowledge cutoff in Oct 2023 and therefore it had no prior knowledge of any event in 2024.
Benchmark Results
| # | Historical Event | Total forecasted events | Confirmed events | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Subscription Cancellations Simplified – FTC mandates easier opt-out for negative option programs. | 67 | 28 | 42% | |
| 2. | Trump Eyes Crypto Deregulation – Incoming administration favors CFTC oversight over SEC. | 63 | 23 | 37% | |
| 3. | Marijuana Reclassification Proposed – DEA moves to reschedule cannabis under federal law. | 77 | 31 | 40% | |
| 4. | Lead Pipe Removal Rule – EPA sets 10-year goal to replace all lead pipes. | 113 | 23 | 20% | |
| 5. | Supreme Court Takes EPA Case – Justices to review fuel companies’ right to challenge emissions waiver. | 40 | 12 | 30% | |
| 6. | Stronger Soot Regulations – EPA tightens air pollution rules, impacting industries. | 88 | 13 | 15% | |
| 7. | Tariff Loophole Crackdown – U.S. targets abuse of de minimis exemption by Chinese firms. | 57 | 3 | 5% | |
| 8. | New Treatment for Childhood Alzheimer’s – FDA approves drug for Niemann-Pick Disease Type C. | 50 | 4 | 8% | |
| 9. | Supreme Court Reform Proposed – Biden pushes for term limits and ethics rules. | 92 | 17 | 18% | |
| 10. | SEC Jury Trial Rights Upheld – Supreme Court limits agency’s in-house fraud adjudications. | 60 | 15 | 25% | |
| 11. | Noncompete Clauses Banned – FTC prohibits noncompetes except for top executives. | 72 | 22 | 31% | |
| 12. | Tourist Flight Plan Overturned – Court invalidates FAA’s national parks air tour plan. | 78 | 21 | 27% | |
| 13. | AI Patent Guidance Issued – USPTO requires human contribution for AI-assisted patents. | 43 | 9 | 21% | |
| 14. | CFPB Funding Upheld – Supreme Court affirms agency’s financial independence. | 84 | 9 | 11% | |
| 15. | Texas Border Fence Dispute – Appeals court sides with Texas on razor-wire fencing case. | 45 | 11 | 24% | |
| 16. | PFAS Restrictions Finalized – EPA limits manufacturing of harmful “forever chemicals.” | 54 | 15 | 28% | |
| 17. | TikTok Forced Divestment – U.S. law requires ByteDance to sell or face ban. | 68 | 49 | 72% | |
| 18. | Presidential Immunity Expanded – Supreme Court shields presidents from prosecution for official acts. | 98 | 28 | 29% | |
| 19. | Abortion Pill Access Preserved – Supreme Court rejects challenge to FDA approval of mifepristone. | 58 | 11 | 19% | |
| 20. | Bitcoin ETFs Approved – SEC allows Bitcoin ETFs, making crypto investments easier. | 65 | 38 | 58% | |
| 21. | Trump Ballot Eligibility Reversed – Supreme Court rules states can’t bar candidates under 14th Amendment. | 61 | 5 | 8% | |
| 22. | Chevron Doctrine Overturned – Supreme Court curtails agency power in statutory interpretation. | 61 | 19 | 31% | |
| 23. | Medicare Drug Prices Cut – Biden administration negotiates lower prices for ten drugs. | 87 | 33 | 38% | |
| 24. | SEC Climate Disclosure Rule – Public companies must report material emissions. | 65 | 21 | 32% |